I study the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict "externalizes" (i.e. spreads to another country by becoming an international dispute). I consider a situation in which a domestic conflict between a government and a rebel group externalizes. I show that the risk of externalization increases the likelihood of a peaceful outcome, but only if the government is sufficiently powerful relative to the rebels, and if the risk of externalization is sufficiently high. I show how this model helps to understand the recent and successful peace process between the Colombian government and the country's most powerful rebel group, the FARC, that ended 52 years of armed conflict.
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